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ELECTION FEVER - THE
POLLS
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Final Election Results: Kadima
28, Labor 19, NDA 4 |
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 All the absentee ballots have been counted, the
surplus vote agreements honored and the appeal against vote-counting procedures
accepted. The final results give the Labor Party one less seat than before, and
the National Democratic Assembly one more seat, but don't change the overall
picture significantly. And so, the final results of the elections for the 17th
Knesset are: Kadima, 29 seats; Labor, 19; Likud, 12; Shas, 12; Yisrael Beiteinu,
11; National Union-National Religious Party, 9; Gil (pensioners), 7; United
Torah Judaism, 6; Meretz, 5; National Democratic Assembly, 4; Hadash, 3; and
United Arab List/Arab Renewal; 3.
Kadima did not win nearly as many seats as it had
expected, but should still be able to form a coalition that will implement its
diplomatic platform. Domestic issues will be more difficult as the parties it
must negotiate with have vastly different platforms on economic and social
welfare issues.
The big surprise of the election is that the
Pensioners Party, which had not been expected to gain enough votes to enter the
Knesset, won seven seats. This is a clear reflection of who voted and who didn't. |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- March 17, 2006
Voters still undecided and
unenthusiastic |
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Even though elections
are only two weeks away, the weekend polls found that 21 percent of voters
still have not decided for whom to vote and that 37 percent are not
interested in deciding. Polls predict that the percent of the population
that turns out to vote will reach a record low.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (+2
from former poll)
Labor - 19 (+1)
Likud - 15 (+1)
Shas - 11 (no change)
Arab Parties - 8 (no change)
National Religious and Ichud Leumi - 8 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (+1)
Israel Beitenu - 10 (no change)
Meretz-Yahad - 4 (-1) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- March 10, 2006
18 seats still undecided |
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Kadima continues to
slowly lose popularity as the elections approach,
thought it still is far ahead of the other parties. Likud and Labor
are fighting for second
place. The 18 seats pollsters say are still undecided
will be key in determining the face of the future
government.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 37 (-2 from former poll)
Labor - 20 (+1)
Likud - 14 (-2)
Shas - 11 (+1)
Arab Parties - 8 (-1)
National Religious and Ichud Leumi - 8 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (+1)
Israel Beitenu - 10 (+1)
Meretz-Yahad - 6 (+1) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- February 24, 2006
Liberman is the man to watch |
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Interest in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and
the Hamas victory has faded and the character of
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
has begun to play
a stronger part in the election. Their party,
Kadima, will still win the elections, but it
is beginning to slip. On the other hand, Avigdor Liberman's
party, Israel Beitenu, is beginning to gain
votes. It seems that this will be the
surprise of these
elections. In addition to his regular Russian immigrant audience,
Liberman is gaining
quite a lot of adherents among young Israelis who are voting for the first
time.
His party won nine seats in the current polls
and this number is expected to rise.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (-4 from former poll)
Labor - 19 (-1)
Likud - 16 (+1)
Shas - 10 (-1)
Arab Parties - 9 (+1)
National Religious and Ichud Leumi - 8 (+2)
Yahadut Hatorah - 5 (-1)
Israel Beitenu - 9 (+3)
Shinui - 0 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (no change) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- February 10, 2006
Putting the Election to Sleep |
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The army and the security
establishment's attempts to frighten Israelis are working - the public
admits that it is frightened. But the public is not budging from its
stance, leaving the election
campaigns in a lull. Some of the "advisors" to
various parties
think that things will change as we
get closer to election day.
The analysts are predicting that a frightened public
will move to the right, but so far reality has
proven them wrong.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 43 (+1 from former poll)
Labor - 20 (-1)
Likud - 15 (No change)
Shas - 11 (+1)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 4 (-1)
National Religious - 2 (-1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (+1)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (No change)
Shinui - 0 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (no change) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- February 3, 2006
Kadima "Evacuates" 2
Seats |
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Polls
show that the Kadima Party lost two seats following the Hamas victory
and especially the violent evacuation of Amona. Despite
this slight slip, the
public is still staunchly behind the new party. According
to various polls, 62% think that Acting Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert is
doing a good job and 40% think that Kadima's list is the best available list of
Knesset candidates. Only 25% think that Labor's list is the best and only
17% think that the Likud's list is the best.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 42 (-2 from former poll)
Labor - 21 (No change)
Likud - 15 (+2)
Shas - 10 (+1)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 3 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 5 (-1)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (+1)
Shinui - 0 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (-1) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- January 27, 2006
Small Changes |
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It is a week of waiting
- waiting for the elections in the Palestinian Authority and waiting for the
evacuation of the settlers in Amona and the vegetable market of Hebron.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 44 (+1 from former poll)
Labor - 21 (No change)
Likud - 13 (+1)
Shas - 9 (No change)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 3 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 5 (-1)
Shinui - 0 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 6 (+1) |
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Weekend Papers and Polls
- January 20, 2006
Shinui Evaporates |
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Following the bickering
between its leaders - old and new - the Shinui
party has evaporated. From a high point of 15 members
in the current Knesset, the party
will no longer exist in the
next Knesset, according to polls. Labor, with its
newly elected list, is gaining in popularity.
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's conduct in the
coming weeks is still the key issue - what will happen after the Herzliya
Conference this Wednesday when he is scheduled to deliver his first political speech as
acting prime minister. Two years ago, Sharon
unveiled his plan to
evacuate the Gaza Strip, a plan originally hatched by Olmert, at the
Herzliya Conference. Olmert is expected to present
his own views on how to proceed at the same venue this
year.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 43 (+1 from former poll)
Labor - 21 (+7, +4 from middle of the week)
Likud - 12 (-1)
Shas - 9 (-1)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 3 (-1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (No change)
Shinui - 0 (-4)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (No change)
Ale Yarok - 2 (+2) |
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Yedioth Ahronot
- January 13, 2006
Kadima Surges Forward. Labor Stumbles |
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Ehud Olmert has made it
through his first week as acting prime minister without
making any major mistakes. With
impressive sensitivity, he has shown that there is a government
and there is a
decision-making process, as
well as demonstrated deep sorrow over the circumstances
that put him in his current position. 71% of the
public think that his conduct has been good; 21% have changed their
appreciation of him from negative to positive. The
end result has been a surge
in the popularity of Kadima, at the expense of Labor and Likud.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 42 (+3 from former poll)
Labor - 17 (-4)
Likud - 13 (-3)
Shas - 10 (1)
Arab Parties - 8 (+1)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 4 (+1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (+1)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (No change)
Shinui - 4 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (-1) |
Israel TV (Channel
Two) - January 8, 2006
Olmert Takes the Lead |
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The latest
polls show that the Kadima
Party, with Ehud Olmert at the helm, still
leads in the polls. If the elections were held today,
Kadima would win 37 seats, Labor would get 20,
and Likud would get 17. The public is definitely
standing behind Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's
party.
The most important political issue just now is that,
with Sharon apparently out the race,
the Labor and Likud parties'
campaigns are in trouble. Both
parties planned their campaign strategy around two
main issues: corruption charges against the Sharon
family and the assumption that Kadima
would not survive without Sharon. Both of these
issues are now moot, leaving
the Labor and Likud parties without a
campaign strategy and little
time to reorganize before the elections. |
Yedioth Ahronot, Ha'aretz,
and Ma'ariv - Jan. 5, 2006 |
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Even without Ariel Sharon, his new party, Kadima, is still leading the polls with 39 seats.
These results prove what many Israelis have known for a long time: it is not
only Sharon's personality that brings the voters to Kadima, but
also the concept
behind the creation of the new party: a change in the old-guard party
system. The unfortunate circumstances of Sharon's hospitalization at least prove
one favourable result: Israel is ready to continue what he started. If Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni, who are considered Sharon's closest disciples, can
prove to be made of leadership material, Sharon will still win the elections -
even if he won't stand personally at the head of his party.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (No change from former poll)
Labor - 20 (-1)
Likud - 16 (+2)
Shas - 9 (No change)
Arab Parties - 7 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (+1)
National Religious - 3 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 5 (-1)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (No change)
Shinui - 4 (-1)
Meretz-Yahad - 6 (No change)
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Yedioth Ahronot - December
30, 2005 |
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Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz has managed
- in only six weeks
- to lose 7
seats for the Labor Party, according to the pollsters. Labor is now back to its current electoral power.
A poll among the Russian immigrants to Israel (some
1 million people), shows strong support for Sharon;
68%
of them are satisfied with their lives in Israel and 76% are against
making territorial
concessions to the Palestinians, even after a peace agreement.
The floating vote
is currently only 20.5%; 79.5%
of the voters say they have already made up their minds who they will
vote for.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (No change from former poll)
Labor - 21 (-1)
Likud - 14 (+2)
Shas - 9 (-1)
Arab Parties - 7 (-1)
Ichud Leumi - 4 (-1)
National Religious - 3 (-1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (+1)
Shinui - 5 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 6 (+1)
Ale' Yarok -1.4 (The party is on the verge of the minimum votes needed for the
knesset).
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Yedioth Ahronot, Ha'aretz,
and Ma'ariv - December
23, 2005 |
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Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hospitalization did not have an effect on
the Israeli voter. His grandfatherly experience is
preferred to the inexperience of
young
mavericks. Two-thirds of the public think that Sharon will make better
decisions; 57% agree that he is the best candidate to manage Israel's relations
with the world; and 48% think he will fight terror better than
Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz (5%) or
Likud Party Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu (26%). When asked who they
consider the least honest, Israeli
voters responded with Netanyahu (40%), Peretz
(13%), and Sharon
(25%).
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (No change from former poll)
Labor - 22 (+2)
Likud - 12 (-1)
Shas - 10 (No change)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 4 (+1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 5 (No change)
Shinui - 5 (+1)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (No change)
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Yedioth Ahronot - December
20, 2005 |
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Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's stroke has not, as feared, undermined
public support for his new political party,
Kadima. Only half of the Israeli public thinks that he has to
reveal his health record, according to the polls. For
the majority of Israelis, Sharon's age and
medical condition do not play a critical role in the decision to vote for his
party. His age, it seems, is even a benefit as it is translated by the public to
mean "more experience."
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (Change from last week's poll: +1)
Labor - 21 (-2)
Likud - 13 (+2)
Shas - 10 (No change)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 3 (No change)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 5 (-2)
Shinui - 4 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (+1)
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Yedioth Ahronot - December
16, 2005 |
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Agreeing
to accept former Likud leaders Tzahi Hanegbi and
Shaul Mofaz into
his new Kadima Party may have
cost Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
three seats in the last four days, or
perhaps it was the aura of
success that created a small backlash.
The issue of the week was the resurfacing of the "Who will
Divide Jerusalem?" issue.
Binyamin Netanyahu started the ball
rolling, with his remark, "Sharon will divide Jerusalem." (This
was the same phrase used
successfully in past election campaigns, as in - "Peres will
divide Jerusalem," "Barak will...," and so on.) The next day,
Newsweek published an interview with Sharon's pollster, Kalman Gayer, who
presented what he claimed was Sharon's revolutionary plans for a settlement
with the Palestinians, which included an agreement to divide Jerusalem. Gayer is
not a spokesperson for Sharon, doesn't have any media skills, and is not privy
to Sharon's thoughts. Still his comments caused damage and Sharon's publicity team had
to quickly produce a "he is not related to us" campaign.
Sharon's
chagrin at Kalman's "revelations" was unnecessary. 56% of the Israelis
polled agree with the statement that "Sharon will divide Jerusalem and give the Arab
neighbourhoods of the city to the Palestinians." But, as it turns out, half of
the population of Israel is in favour of giving the Arab neighbourhoods of
Jerusalem to the Palestinians (49% for, 49% against, to be
precise). For the Arabs of
Jerusalem, however, this is a very worrying scenario. After nearly 40 years of living in
Israel, becoming part of the unstable and impoverished Palestinian Authority
is
not a dream, but a nightmare.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 38 (Change from last week's poll:
-3)
Labor - 23 (+2)
Likud - 11 (No change)
Shas - 10 (No change)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 6 (+1)
National Religious - 3 (-1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (No
change)
Israel Beitenu - 7 (+1)
Shinui - 4 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 4 (No change)
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Yedioth Ahronot - December
12, 2005 |
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Kadima, the new party formed by
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, is gaining strength - so
much strength that other parties are examining the
option of postponing elections by creating a coalition government
consisting of Labor, Likud
and Shinui. If this were to happen, either Binyamin Netanyahu,
of the Likud, or Amir Peretz,
of the Labor Party, would become prime
minister and Sharon would be
forced out of office and into the opposition.
The window of opportunity to do this is until December
29th. After this date, the
elections now set for March cannot be stopped.
The chances that this will happen are still slim, but
Sharon's continuing success could be the catalyst for this move.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 41 (Change from last week's poll: +2)
Labor - 21 (-2)
Likud - 11 (-2)
Shas - 10 (No change)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 4 (+1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 6 (+1)
Israel Beitenu - 6 (+2)
Shinui - 4 (-1)
Meretz-Yahad - 4 (-1)
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Yedioth Ahronot - December
9, 2005 |
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Kadima, Sharon's party continues to gain strength.
The Likud has recovered a little from last week's all-time low of 10 seats,
while Labor
fell after responding to the terror
attack in Netanya by changing its emphasis from
poverty and economy to security.
Poll Results:
Kadima - 39 (Change from last week's poll - +5)
Labor - 23 (-4)
Likud - 13 (+3)
Shas - 10 (-1)
Arab Parties - 8 (No change)
Ichud Leumi - 5 (No change)
National Religious - 3 (-1)
Yahadut Hatorah - 5 (-1)
Israel Beitenu - 4 (-1)
Shinui - 5 (No change)
Meretz-Yahad - 5 (No change)
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Ha'aretz - December
7, 2005 |
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Poll Results::
Kadima - 39
Labor - 22
Likud - 12
Shas - 8
Arab Parties - 8
Ichud Leumi - 7
National Religious - 3
Yahadut Hatorah - 6
Israel Beitenu - 5
Shinui - 5
Meretz-Yahad - 5
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Ha'aretz - December
2, 2005 |
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Poll Results:
Kadima - 37
Labor - 26
Likud - 9
Shas - 10
Arab Parties - 8
Ichud Leumi - 9
National Religious - 9
Yahadut Hatorah - 6
Israel Beitenu - 6
Shinui - 5
Meretz-Yahad - 4
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NEW
KNESSET
Kadima -
29
Labor - 19
Likud - 12
Shas - 12
Arab Parties - 10
Ichud Leumi and National Religious-
9
Yahadut Hatorah -
6
Israel Beitenu - 11
Shinui - 0
Meretz-Yahad - 5
Pensioners - 7
PREVIOUS
KNESSET
Kadima - 0
Labor - 22
Likud - 40
Shas - 11
Arab Parties - 8
Ichud Leumi - 7
National Religious - 6
Yahadut Hatorah - 5
Israel Beitenu - 7
Shinui - 15
Meretz-Yahad - 6
ELECTION MANEUVERS
Olmert Gives an Interview
With support for the Kadima Party falling in the polls, Acting Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert decided to address the main reason for voters' disenchantment:
the lack of clarity as to what Kadima is all about. In a detailed
interview in the daily Yediot Aharonot newspaper, Olmert lays down Kadima's political views;
he mainly said that Israel will move towards disengagement from the Palestinians, retaining only
settlement blocs in the West Bank. Though he would prefer to do this as part of
an agreement with the
Palestinians, if no agreement is reached, Israel will act unilaterally.
Liberman Ties with Olmert
In a poll which asks who is the most credible politician at present,
Ehud Olmert and Avigdor Liberman got 17% each. Amir Peretz was next with 15%,
followed by Yossi Beilin with 12% and
Binyamin Netanyahu with only 8%.
Post-Election Ideas in the Air
Even though everything seems quiet on the coalition front, discussions
are being held, quietly, between Kadima and the Labor Party. Labor's new party list makes it possible
for Kadima to offer Ami Ayalon the post of minister of defense - and thereby get rid of the unpopular
Shaul Mofaz. Amir Peretz supposedly will be offered control of a combination of social
and economic ministries. The
Treasury is, of course, out of the question for Labor. The fact that Ehud Barak is not on
the list makes a future coalition a much easier proposition. Talks between Barak
and Peretz on adding him to the list will be held this week - our hunch is that
they will lead to nothing.
Peres Again Leads in the Polls
Following Ariel Sharon's hospitalization, the pollsters in Israel wanted to
know what would happen to his party if different members of the party headed it.
With Ehud Olmert, the party remained at its current strength, their polls found. With Tzipi Livni,
the party lost 3 seats - but still won the elections. With Peres, Kadima rose to
42 seats - an all-time high. The old Israeli political adage was thus proven
again: Peres always wins in the polls. Unfortunately, he has never won an actual
election.
Likud Picks Netanyahu
Binyamin Netanyahu won the Likud Party primaries by a landslide on
Monday, coming in far ahead of his closest rival, Foreign Minister Silvan
Shalom. In conceding the election, Shalom pledged to remain in the party and
work with Netanyahu. In his victory speech, Netanyahu said that he is optimistic
and the party demonstrated its vitality throughout the primary campaign.
However, the low voter turnout may show something else - less than 40 percent of
those eligible to vote in the primaries bothered to do so.
Shaul Mofaz joins Kadima
Shaul Mofaz, Minister of Defense in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud
government, announced that he is leaving the Likud and joining Sharon's
new party. The Likud has swung too far to the right, he claimed at a press
conference. But, it seems that the late contender for head of the Likud simply is doing
what many others already have done: abandoning the Likud's sinking ship.
200,000 Follow Sharon
200,000 people have joined Kadima,
Sharon's new party, in the last two weeks.
Though representatives of the party have been handing out
fliers and collecting names at major intersections in an effort to recruit
members, nearly all of the members have
applied and joined the party via the internet.
Hanegbi
Abandons Likud Tzachi Hanegbi, the
Likud Party Chairman, has abandoned his party and joined Sharon's
Kadima Party. The move is a blow for
the Likud. However, because charges
were brought against Hanegbi for giving government jobs
to Likud members, his value to Kadima is doubtful.
Ehud Barak
Opts Out
Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak announced
that he will not run for seat on
the Labor Party's Knesset list. He
also said that Sharon is a much
better candidate for Prime Minister than Amir Peretz, the
recently elected head of the Labor Party. |
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