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ERETZ SURVEY - July 22, 2006

 

Hizbullah in Proportion

The Israeli press tends to portray Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as a strategic monster and a planning genius. The bellicose threats he makes on his own television station are repeated and analyzed in the Israeli media. The pundits panic the public as they debate when and how Nasrallah's threats will be carried out. In the process, the images of Nasrallah and the Hizbullah have grown completely out of proportion to reality.

It is important to remember what the Hizbullah really is. It is a small organization with about 7000 active members. Of these members, only a few hundred are trained fighters. The Hizbullah is not an army and not, at present, an existential threat to Israel. Its rockets are damaging and frightening; after all, if the rockets hit a major target, they can cause a lot of damage, including the loss of lives, as the world has seen in the past week. But the damage of the rockets is not something that Israel can't handle.

The Hizbullah has dug itself heavily into southern Lebanon. It has mined and booby-trapped the approaches to its strongholds, dug bunkers and trenches, set up observation posts, and planned ambushes. But the few hundred Hizbullah fighters that are manning these positions are no match for the ability and strength of the Israel Defense Forces. Their "legendary" motivation has never been tested, and neither has their fighting ability.

Nasrallah's powers as a strategist are also not so clear. At present, he is a hunted fugitive fleeing from bunker to bunker as Israeli planes, armed with information given to them by local Lebanese, bomb his hideouts. His "cobweb" theory - that the hedonistic Israelis will not be able to withstand his terror attacks - has collapsed. His belief that the world would not allow Israel to attack his bases in Lebanon has proved wrong, as has his expectation that Syria and Iran would support him.

The Hizbullah is potentially dangerous. Nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of Nasrallah, who, like Iran, is mad enough to use them. To prevent that from happening, the Hizbullah must be stopped and disarmed. But in order to do that, the Israeli public first must put the situation back in proportion and cut the Hizbullah down to its true size.



 

 

PREVIOUS  SURVEYS

Borders and Frontiers

Disturbing Facts

War on the Lebanese Border

Changing the Rules

The Shiite-Sunni Genii


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