There has been a dramatic escalation in the number of missiles
the Hizbullah fired into Israel in the last two days. It jumped
from an average of 100 missiles a day
to over 200 missiles a day. The
results have been 15 Israelis dead - many of them Israeli-Arabs
- and
nearly 200 wounded, plus major damage to property.
The military analysts
and commentators foresaw this sudden escalation.
Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah, with his back to the wall, is trying
to convince the Moslem world and the Western world
that he has won this conflict, even if the final ceasefire
agreement totally curtails his power in Lebanon and allows Israel
to achieve its goal of redefining the situation on its border
with Lebanon. In order to do this, Nasrallah is ready to expose the last of
his mid-range launchers, knowing all too well that the moment
that they fire they will be discovered and destroyed by the IDF.
Hizbullah's true
situation is dire. Its fighting force of 2,000 has been
diminished by 400 deaths. Another 200 of its fighters are trapped inside towns and
villages surrounded by Israeli forces and are about to die fighting or
to surrender. The IDF has peeled away Nasrallah's strong outer defense
line along the Lebanese-Israeli border, opening the way to the
soft inner core of his defenses. A reserve brigade of Israeli troops
is advancing along the coast and is only 8 km. from Tyre,
while other brigades are already 15 km. inside Lebanon.
Israeli commando units, operating deep inside Lebanon, are
attacking headquarters and command posts, bringing back prisoners,
collecting intelligence, and having a dramatic demoralizing
effect.
The IDF has adapted quickly to Hizbullah's fighting
tactics and is utilizing new battle techniques. It won't be
making any more
attempts to rush head on into Hizbullah bunkers and
hideouts. Ground forces now concentrate on taking over
firing bases, which are then used to control the area with firepower from the air, artillery, and armored forces. This technique
does not exactly match the Hizbullah's plan for the IDF to get bogged
down in a time-consuming, house-to-house, bunker-to-bunker
battle. The Hizbullah fighters left in the Israeli-held areas of
southern
Lebanon now are trapped and their supplies are running out. They
will soon have to decide between death or surrender.
Finally, on the
international front, Iran and Syria are not happy with the
results of Nasrallah's kidnapping adventure. Iran has put its
archterrorist, Imad Morniyeh, in command of Hizbullah's
operations in southern Lebanon. Iran and Syria frantically are trying to
supply Hizbullah with mid-range and long-range missile launchers,
personnel, new missiles, and more. But supplying the weapons and
getting it and fighters from airports in Syria into
Lebanon is not easy. Israel is monitoring the roads that lead from Syria
into Lebanon and therefore supplies have to be snuck in over difficult
mountain passes during the night.
The time has come to
end this battle. Israeli troops are now in position to overrun
southern Lebanon and the launching areas of the Hizbullah
missiles north of the Litani River in a matter of hours.
The Hizbullah is on the verge of losing over half of its
fighting capacity and maybe even collapsing completely. Lebanon, still in the
clutches of the Hizbullah, is trying to find a way to squeeze
out of the ceasefire agreements being formulated in the
U.N. Security Council. Iran and Syria do not want a foreign force around
to interfere with their activities in Lebanon. So the time has come for the IDF to
pounce. To sear into the minds of the Moslem world
pictures of Israeli flags flying over the towns of Lebanon. To deliver
the message that the West is not going to give in, Israel is not
going to collapse, and extreme Islam, led by Iran and Syria, is
not an option.
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