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ERETZ SURVEY - August 7, 2006

 

Time to Pounce

 There has been a dramatic escalation in the number of missiles the Hizbullah fired into Israel in the last two days. It jumped from an average of 100 missiles a day to over 200 missiles a day. The results have been 15 Israelis dead - many of them Israeli-Arabs - and nearly 200 wounded, plus major damage to property.

The military analysts and commentators foresaw this sudden escalation. Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, with his back to the wall, is trying to convince the Moslem world and the Western world that he has won this conflict, even if the final ceasefire agreement totally curtails his power in Lebanon and allows Israel to achieve its goal of redefining the situation on its border with Lebanon. In order to do this, Nasrallah is ready to expose the last of his mid-range launchers, knowing all too well that the moment that they fire they will be discovered and destroyed by the IDF.

Hizbullah's true situation is dire. Its fighting force of 2,000 has been diminished by 400 deaths. Another 200 of its fighters are trapped inside towns and villages surrounded by Israeli forces and are about to die fighting or to surrender. The IDF has peeled away Nasrallah's strong outer defense line along the Lebanese-Israeli border, opening the way to the soft inner core of his defenses. A reserve brigade of Israeli troops is advancing along the coast and is only 8 km. from Tyre, while other brigades are already 15 km. inside Lebanon. Israeli commando units, operating deep inside Lebanon,  are attacking headquarters and command posts, bringing back prisoners, collecting intelligence, and having a dramatic demoralizing effect.

The IDF has adapted quickly to Hizbullah's fighting tactics and is utilizing new battle techniques. It won't be making any more attempts to rush head on into Hizbullah bunkers and hideouts. Ground forces now concentrate on taking over firing bases, which are then used to control the area with firepower from the air, artillery, and armored forces. This technique does not exactly match the Hizbullah's plan for the IDF to get bogged down in a time-consuming, house-to-house, bunker-to-bunker battle. The Hizbullah fighters left in the Israeli-held areas of southern Lebanon now are trapped and their supplies are running out. They will soon have to decide between death or surrender.

Finally, on  the international front, Iran and Syria are not happy with the results of Nasrallah's kidnapping adventure. Iran has put its archterrorist, Imad Morniyeh, in command of Hizbullah's operations in southern Lebanon. Iran and Syria frantically are trying to supply Hizbullah with mid-range and long-range missile launchers, personnel, new missiles, and more. But supplying the weapons and getting it and fighters from airports in Syria into Lebanon is not easy. Israel is monitoring the roads that lead from Syria into Lebanon and therefore supplies have to be snuck in over difficult mountain passes during the night.

The time has come to end this battle. Israeli troops are now in position to overrun southern Lebanon and the launching areas of the Hizbullah missiles north of the Litani River in a matter of  hours. The Hizbullah is on the verge of losing over half of its fighting capacity and maybe even collapsing completely. Lebanon, still in the clutches of the Hizbullah, is trying to find a way to squeeze out of the ceasefire agreements being formulated in the U.N. Security Council. Iran and Syria do not want a foreign force around to interfere with their activities in Lebanon. So the time has come for the IDF to pounce. To sear into the minds of the Moslem world pictures of Israeli flags flying over the towns of Lebanon. To deliver the message that the West is not going to give in, Israel is not going to collapse, and extreme Islam, led by Iran and Syria, is not an option.

PREVIOUS  SURVEYS

Borders and Frontiers

Disturbing Facts

War on the Lebanese Border

Changing the Rules

The Shiite-Sunni Genii

Hizbullah - In Proportion

The Hush of Determination

Finance Ministry Versus North 

Back to the Basics

Acute Stomachache


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